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Prediction for CME (2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-16T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26949/-1
CME Note: Wide, complex, difficult to analyze CME with primary directionality (bulk) to the southwest in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs but containing features also seen to the west, south, and southeast along a discontinuous front. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk from 2023-09-16T07:00Z to 09:00Z seen best in SDO/GOES 304; filament extends from N30W00 southwest through N10W30 with a minor, more narrow segment extending back east from N10W30 back towards S03W05. Arrival signature: Sudden sharp jump in solar wind parameters with B total reaching 21 nT and speed increasing above 550 km/s. May be indicative of additional coronal hole high speed stream influences (Tarik Salman, LASSOS team) from coronal hole at central meridian on 2023-09-15. Less likely but possible that this is a combined arrival of this CME and the 2023-09-14T23:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-18T12:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-19T15:15Z (-7.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth, Juno)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-09-17T13:42:10Z
## Message ID: 20230917-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230916-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2023-09-19T03:46Z and 2023-09-19T18:56Z (average arrival 2023-09-19T11:18Z) for 100% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-09-19T07:38Z and 2023-09-19T23:00Z (average arrival 2023-09-19T15:15Z) for 95% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-09-16_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045/Detailed_results_20230916_150400_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA045.txt

This CME event (2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have a minor impact at Juno at 2023-10-02T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230916-AL-002).

Lead Time: 41.63 hour(s)
Difference: -26.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-09-16T19:20Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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